Australian legislative election, 2004

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Australia in 2004. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate will be up for election. The conservative coalition of the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister John Howard, and the National Party of Australia led by Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. They will be opposed by the Australian Labor Party, led by Mark Latham. Minor parties such as the Australian Democrats, the Australian Greens, One Nation and the Australian Progressive Alliance will also contest the election.

Table of contents

1 Date 2 The House of Representatives 3 The Senate 4 Issues 5 Party leaders 6 Election timetable

Date

Under Australia's Westminster system, the date of the election is a matter for the discretion of the Prime Minister, within certain legislative and constitutional constraints. To call an election, the Prime Minister advises the Governor-General to dissolve the current Parliament by proclamation and issue writs for the election of a new Parliament. There must be at least one month between the issuing of the writs and the date of the election. (When a federal election is called, writs for the election of Senators are issued by the Governors of the Australian states, on the request of the Governor-General. This is because under the Constitution of Australia the Senate represents the states, although it is in fact elected on party lines.) The current Parliament was elected on 10 November 2001, for a three-year term. The Parliament's term, however, is dated not from the election itself but from the date of the first sitting of the Parliament following the election, which was in March 2002. The last date on which an election can be held is Saturday 16 April 2005 (see the note at the end of this article). It is considered highly unlikely, however, that the Prime Minister will delay calling the election beyond October or November 2004. Although the Prime Minister can call an election for the House of Representatives at any time, the timing of Senate elections is restricted by the Constitution. Senators' terms always expire on 30 June, regardless of the date of the election, and a normal election for half the Senate cannot be held more than a year before the Senators are due to take their seats. The terms of the Senators elected in 1998 expire on 30 June 2005 (Senators serve six-year terms). A half-Senate election cannot therefore be called before 1 July 2004. The Prime Minister has the option, however, of calling a double dissolution election, at which the whole Senate as well as the House of Representatives must face re-election. This is a device for resolving deadlocks between the House of Representatives and the Senate. The government already has the prerequisites for a double dissolution, because the Senate has twice rejected several pieces of government legislation. A double dissolution cannot be held within the last six months of a Parliament's term, meaning that this option will expire for the current government in September. During June speculation mounted that the Prime Minister intended calling an election on the earliest date on which he could hold both a House of Representatives election and a half-Senate election. This was 7 August. Since the minimum period between the dissolution of the Parliament and the election is 33 days, such an election would have had to be announced on or before Monday 5 July. No such announcement was in fact made. It is considered unlikely the Prime Minister, having passed up the option of a 7 August election, will call an election in the remainder of August or in September, because this would entail campaigning during the period of the Olympic Games. Most commentators believe this would be unpopular with the electorate. It would be very difficult for the government parties to buy television advertising time during the Olympics. The most likely election date is now believed to be in October, probably 9 October.

The House of Representatives

After the 2001 election the party strengths in the House of Representatives were as follows:

Party                                    Seats\n ------------------------------------------------------------\n Liberal Party                             69\n National Party of Australia               13\n Australian Labor Party                    65\n Independents                               3\n ------------------------------------------------------------\n Total                                    150\n ------------------------------------------------------------

In October 2002 the Australian Greens won a by-election in a seat previously held by the Labor Party following the resignation of the sitting member. During 2003 new constituency boundaries were drawn up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. This had the effect of changing one Labor held seat in Victoria into a notionally Liberal seat. The parties will therefore go into a 2004 election with the following notional strengths:

Party                                    Seats\n ------------------------------------------------------------\n Liberal Party                             70\n National Party of Australia               13\n Australian Labor Party                    63\n Australian Greens                          1\n Independents                               3\n ------------------------------------------------------------\n Total                                    150\n ------------------------------------------------------------

To gain a majority in the House of Representatives, the Labor Party must therefore make a net gain of 13 seats. If Labor were to gain 12 seats, and the Green member to be re-elected, it is probable that the Green member would support a minority Labor government. If Labor were to gain 11 seats, it is possible, though far from certain, that one of the three independent members would support a Labor government. The other two independent members are conservatives.

The Senate

Because the Senate is elected by proportional representation, it is very difficult for either of the major parties to gain a majority. The last Prime Minister to have a majority in the Senate was Malcolm Fraser in the period 1975-1981. Since then the balance of power in the Senate has been held by minor parties and independent Senators. The current state of the parties in the Senate is as follows:

Party                                    Senators\n ------------------------------------------------------------\n Liberal Party                             31\n National Party of Australia                4\n Australian Labor Party                    28\n Australian Democrats                       7\n Australian Greens                          2\n Australian Progressive Alliance            1\n Pauline Hanson's One Nation                1\n Independents                               2\n ------------------------------------------------------------\n Total                                     76\n ------------------------------------------------------------

The Liberal and National parties thus need a gain of four seats to win a majority in the Senate, while the Labor Party needs a gain of 11 seats. Neither of these outcomes is considered likely. There is likely to be change in the distribution of seats among the minor parties. The Australian Democrats have suffered from internal conflict and leadership changes since 2001 and are considered in grave danger of losing two or three seats, probably to the Australian Greens, who have seen a surge in their support in opinion polls. Pauline Hanson's One Nation has disintegrated since the withdrawal from politics of Pauline Hanson. Their sole Senate seat is considered likely to revert to the National Party.

Issues

John Howard won the 2001 elections after trailing Labor in the opinion polls for two years, by seizing on the issues of national security, following the September 11 terrorist attacks, and border protection against illegal immigrants (see MS Tampa). It is unlikely that these issues will dominate the 2004 election to nearly the same extent. Howard's campaign, nevertheless, will seek to portray him as a tough and experienced leader who can be trusted with Australia's security, and who has good relations with Australia's principal allies, the United States and Britain. On domestic issues, polls have consistently shown that the Liberals are regarded as sound managers of the economy, but that voters are opposed to the government's policies in the fields of health, education, the environment and other areas of social policy. Labor has accused the government of seeking to dismantle Australia's system of universal health insurance, Medicare, of restructuring Australia's higher education system to the benefit of students from wealthier families, and of endangering the environment by refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The election will therefore hinge on whether voters choose to give priority to issues of national security and border protection, or to issues of social policy. Labor's new leader, Mark Latham, has sought to improve Labor's image on national security issues by stressing Labor's support for the U.S. Alliance, and to develop new policies on border protection. Likewise, Howard spent much of 2003 introducing new health and education initiatives in an effort to improve the government's standing in these areas. Unconventional issues such as the "crisis of masculinity" and politicians' superannuation, raised by Mark Latham, may also play a part in the election.

Party leaders

• John Howard has been an MP since 1974, leader of the Liberal Party since 1995 (he was previously leader from 1985 to 1989), and Prime Minister since March 1996. He will turn 65 in July 2004, a fact which may become an election issue, especially after the election of Mark Latham to the Labor Party leadership. He is by far the most experienced politician in Australian federal politics. He is considered a master of political strategy and until recently his re-election for a fourth term was considered almost certain. \n* John Anderson has been an MP since 1988 and leader of the National Party and Deputy Prime Minister since 1999. Although talented and personable, he has been unable to stem the long-term decline in the Nationals' rural electoral base. In 2003, he was considering retiring from Parliament at the upcoming election and handing his party's leadership prior to then to his deputy Mark Vaile. However, he reconsidered and is now staying on as both an MP and party leader.\n* Mark Latham has been an MP since 1994 and was elected leader of the Australian Labor Party in December 2003. He was elected following the resignation of Simon Crean, who was given no chance, even by his own party, of defeating Howard. Since his election Latham has campaigned aggressively and made a good impression, although he has yet to be seriously tested. The sittings of the Parliament during 2004 and the opinion polls will reveal whether he can mount a serious challenge to Howard.\n* Andrew Bartlett has been a Senator since 1997 and leader of the Australian Democrats since 2002. His efforts to revive the Democrats' fortunes after a year of damaging internal conflict were severely set back by an incident in December 2003 in which he accosted Liberal Senator Jeannie Ferris in the Senate chamber while visibly drunk. It remains to be seen whether his standing can recover.\n* Bob Brown has been a Senator and the informal leader of the Australian Greens since 1996. By resolutely opposing Australia's participation in the Iraq War he has established himself as the most prominent figure of the Australian left and has a high reputation for integrity.

Election timetable

The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way: Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House." Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ." Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination." This parliament first met on 12 February 2002. Therefore it expires on 12 February 2005. The writs must therefore be issued by 22 February 2005 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 21 March 2005 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place is therefore 16 April 2005 (26 days after nominations). Category:Elections in Australia